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Robert Kubica says he cannot be confident that BMW's developments will bring it into contention in Japan as this season has been too close and unpredictable to have firm expectations.

BMW Sauber introduced a major upgrade in Singapore and although it had a low-key race, it always expected that the new parts would prove more significant at Suzuka - a belief Kubica shares.

"I think Singapore was not the ideal track to see completely the full potential of it, but we have seen some improvement - a bit less than expected but this is kind of normal especially on a track where there is not a lot of aerodynamic or downforce corners," he said. "So I hope we can benefit more out of it here in Suzuka than Singapore."

But he was unwilling to get too excited given recent shock results.

"To be honest it is difficult to expect anything because we have seen in the last races many teams going up and down depending on the track conditions, on the car characteristics, on the track characteristics, on the tyres, so there are a lot of factors which have a big influence and especially this year where the grid is very tight and very close together so it is difficult to predict where you'll end up," he said.

The Pole reckons the main reason for the fluctuations is that the teams are now so closely-matched that even the slightest glitch sends a driver plunging down the order.

"The grid is so tight - in the past with a 0.2-0.3s loss, maybe you would be in the same position or you lose one position," said Kubica. "I think in Singapore fourth to 11th was around 0.25s, so it makes a huge difference in qualifying two. In the past there were some teams fighting [at the front], then half a second gap to the others. Like in 2007 we were the third quickest team, half a second from the top and with half a second behind us, so even if you were not extracting the maximum you were ending up fifth or sixth, so it was a completely different situation. Last year in Australia I did a big mistake in qualifying on my fastest lap and I was still on the front row, and in Bahrain I did pole position - I did not a perfect lap but it was enough to be first."

He also believes that whatever BMW achieves with its upgrades, its basic package this year is simply not competitive enough for late-season miracles.

"I think the quickest cars and quickest package will be the one which extracts the maximum in these special conditions on this special track," Kubica said. "But of course our potential is less than the other teams who have won races this year."